Friday, June 29, 2007

How Unpredictable is the Sudanese Politics?

In the three years that preceded the death of John Garang, the paramount leader of the rebel Sudanese People Liberation Movement (SPLM) and its military wing SPLA and in three different occasions, I have been to three political symposiums held by the SPLM in London. On each of those occasions Dr. John Garang the head of the organisation at the time was the main speaker. I was quite taken by the prestigious settings of the venues in which these activities were held and the rigour of the manual and electronic security checks attendants had to go through to get into the venues. Inside hundreds of people from all nationalities and walks of life were present. Cameras of all sizes and shapes, recordings and photography were in abundance. Demonstrative audio-visuals where in place to allow the speaker to skilfully set out elaborating his ideas, using in some cases mathematical equations and complicated conceptual phrases, interrupted only by the odd chanting, singing and poem saying by enthusiastic followers among the audience. In one of these occasions, worried about my car parked outside on the street nearby, I wanted to sneak out to check it, only to be asked to stay a foot because the security of all cars in the vicinity of the building was actually under the control of the security staff on place. I found that assuring to my satisfaction and quietly went back to my seat laying aside my worries about London’s parking tickets and its notorious wheel-clamping operators. That, of course had not only saved me the interruption to the engagement with the debate but it also saved me the hassle of having to go through the same security checks, the bag, the personal and the electronic detector all over again if I were to re-enter the hall.

That winter, just before Christmas, I went to two public symposiums. One by the Sudanese Communist Party held in a neighbourhood church in Kilburn Borough of London and the other one held by the Sudan Umma Party on the next day. The speaker in the first one was Alshafee Khidir of the Communist party with comments made by both Engineer Hashim Mohammed Ahmed and Hatim Elsir of the Democratic Unionist Party. The other occasion was speech given by Sadiq Almahadi the head his party (Umma) and sect (Ansar) and the former elected Prime Minister of Sudan. Sadiq’s lecture was confined to the rather simple surroundings of the Sudanese Saturday School in London with the majority of attendants having either to stand up or sit across their seats as the seats were actually nailed to the floor on the wrong direction facing each other with a metal table in-between in the school’s dinning hall. The banner behind the speaker facing the audience was hand-written in a creased rectangular yellowish clothe with its edges dangling freely of a cello-taped end in each side.


I among many others had to endure London’s winter and its time consuming exorbitant travel cost to have an audience with one of Sudan’s most powerful personalities seeking answers to, among others, two main questions. The first is what he was making of and doing about Darfur? The second is what he is doing about a country which he once ruled and is now admittedly falling apart in front of his very eyes.

Sadiq went about giving graphic description to how he since his return to Sudan was engaged in a process of restructuring his party the process which now rendered the party more democratic, gender and age sensitive. The culmination of that is now apparent in the fact that, according to him, the Imamship of his sect, the Ansar, is now constitutional and subject to electoral vote. On Darfur, he counted four new phenomena which include the politicisation and militarization of ethnicity and the emergence of armed political groups in the region. As far as his actions in response to the conflict were concerned, he said he wrote to all international parties concerned and to local groups involved. In response to questions by the floor alleging that he has not sufficiently dealt with the matter in any way measured to the size of the conflict, he was adamant that he did enough and that he is not in power to do more. In response to a comment which connected him during his reign to the start of the process of arming ethnic groups, he for the first time, to my knowledge, admitted that he handed over arms to some tribal leaders (Omad) to defend themselves during the attacks in Gardood area of the Nuba Mountains.

In his speech, Sadiq placed great emphasis on the diversity of Sudan and how he and his party have now taken that fact home and are allowing it to be embodied in their political thinking and action. He asserted that they now deeply believe that the rise of Islamic state in Sudan is implausible. I find that interesting as Ashafee Khidir in his lecture on the previous day also asserted his believe that Sudan will never be governable by an ideological state, as he put it, be it from the left or the right.

Talking of Ashafee;s lecture, he was more interested in the reasons why should they as National Democratic Alliance negotiate with the government in Cairo. He believes that the process could lead to amicable dismantling of the regime in Khartoum, given the difficulty the Intifadha (popular up-rise) project and the military action are facing. Not saying why, he more than once expressed his convictions that the more negotiating platforms are there the better it would be for the political process in Sudan. Nifasha, Aboja and Cairo are there a fourth one would be welcomed according to him. In response to doubts raised by the floor as to the seriousness and suitability of Egypt as a host to their negotiations, Ashafee was very confrontational saying that those who do not accept it should swallow it and wash it down with a sip of water.

An interesting point was raised by veteran Sudanese Baathist politician, Alsawi in Alshafee’s lecture. He said that sweeping changes have taken place in the Sudanese society in the recent years. The demographic features and structures of the Sudanese cities, towns and communities have changed beyond recognition. Attitudes, held-beliefs and the whole way of life the Sudanese experienced have been drastically altered. Taking into consideration these facts, should we expect the Intifada to occur the way it did in October 64 and April 85? The answer came from Engineer Hashim who expressed his unshaken believe that the Intifadha is possible and will occur. Ashafee was more open to the immense implications of Alsawi’s assertion.

Looking at the scene today you would see the enormous change that took place in a relatively short period of time. John Garang with all his charisma and pulling personality is out of the scene after signing the peace agreement with Sudan government. The intifadha of course didn’t happen. Khartoum Islamic regime is still in power and sharing it with SPLM who is operating in the absence of its visionary charismatic leader. Sadiq Almahadi is maintaining his stand of opposition to the government but, no one is sure what he is intending to do apart from waiting for things to happen. The Communist party is back operating in Khartoum , rebuilding itself with no sign to the long awaited conference and very much restricted to a trivial role in the National Assembly. Shafee’s hope that Cairo would produce some agreement between Northern political opposition parties similar to between GOS and SPLM obviously didn’t materialised the way he must have hoped. He might have swallow that with a sip of water. Darfur problem is escalating by the minute and increasingly changing into direct confrontation between GOS and the international community. The political landscape has changed dramatically with Khartoum Islamic regime had to share power with SPLM and all opposition parties operating almost freely within Khartoum. All the signs are that Darfur will inevitably be controlled by the international community despite the rhetoric coming out of the regime in Khartoum.


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